This Time Its Different
Tuesday, April 28th, 2009They have been called the four most dangerous words in investing. Beware whenever you see the words “its going to be different this time” used to justify why it is worthwhile to join in the latest investment mania. The mania will probably last longer than you think it will but it always ends in the same way – by not being different this time.
Professional traders who are very disciplined and accustomed to using stop-losses are the ones who truly profit from speculative bubbles & manias because they are the ones who hang onto their winnings and do not end up by giving all their winnings back again cometh the downturn. The true professionals follow the trend up, get out & then switch to the bear tack and profit on the way back down too.
From a practical investing standpoint and no matter how compelling the argument du jour used to justify why it is going to be different this time, just don’t fall for it. The market may sustain the latest investment mania for longer than speculators betting against it can stay solvent but, rest assured, it won’t be different this time. As an investor you don’t have to bet against the mania, you can simply choose to protect your capital by not participating in it.